19th July 2010. Recent upgrade from Thinkequity. Personally I dont believe in upgrades. Looking at the fundamentals.
Market Capitlisation $20.91bn
Sales $6,400 Dec 2009. $6,400 December 2006. So between 2006 and 2009 Yahoo has not increased sales.
Net underlying earnings $724m Dec 2009. $736m Dec 2006.
PE ratio based on underlying earnings 28.9
The only growth in earnings has been in March 2010 of a mere $0.2bn.
Google PE ratio is 19. Sales December 2009 = $23,650. Sales December 2006 $10,640.
Typically I would say that a short on Yahoo would be worth it.
Revenues are expected to be $1,160bn. Earnings per share around 14c.
Expected revenues have already been reduced to take account of Yahoo's loss of market share, so there could be an easy beat, prompting uneducated investors into the share.
However I cant see how the valuation stands up in comparison to its peer group given the lack of growth.
Monday 19 July 2010
Todays Trading 19 July 2010
19 July 2010. Im looking at the following stocks today. IBM, TXN with earnings to be released AMC today. JPM I am looking to see if there is some sort of bounce after an apparent upgrade and a bashing on Friday. GS gave away gains made on Friday pre market after the agreement with the SEC.
MAT was also bashed on Friday - should be looking for a bounce, it only missed by 1c and Toy Story 3 is a big hit for DIS. Sales of merchandise should help MAT.
EDU - if this misses estimates this will fall big time.
MAT was also bashed on Friday - should be looking for a bounce, it only missed by 1c and Toy Story 3 is a big hit for DIS. Sales of merchandise should help MAT.
EDU - if this misses estimates this will fall big time.
Bank Stress Tests
19th July 2010.
The bank stress test results are being published at 16.00GMT on Friday 23rd July 2010. They will be after markets close st 16:00 GMT.
The banks I am watching this week in the UK are ;
Barclays (BAR)
HSBC
Im staying well away from other European banks (except Spanish). The German banks have some serious real estate debt and other banks I'm sure they have been lending to some of the former eastern European companies with significant property valuation issues.
The bank stress test results are being published at 16.00GMT on Friday 23rd July 2010. They will be after markets close st 16:00 GMT.
The banks I am watching this week in the UK are ;
Barclays (BAR)
HSBC
Im staying well away from other European banks (except Spanish). The German banks have some serious real estate debt and other banks I'm sure they have been lending to some of the former eastern European companies with significant property valuation issues.
Sunday 18 July 2010
Good news for the Euro
July 15 2010. Spain's sale of 15-year government bonds successful. Italian government wins backing for austerity package. Greece pushes through wage deal, widens pension reform.
Saturday 17 July 2010
Earnings for 19th July 2010
The following are notable earnings for next week.
Monday: DAL, HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU, PETS, ATHR, BRO, CCK, ELS, IBM, ICUI, IEX, LNCR, NE, PKG, RLRN, RLI, STLD, TXN, TUP, and ZION.
Tuesday: BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, ITW, JNJ, PEP, PII, STT, AMTD, UAL, UNH, WHR, BSX, GILD, JNPR, TPX, CMW, AND YHOO.
Wednesday: ABT, MO, BLK, KO, CMA, GENZ, MS, LCC, USB, WFC, BIDU, EBAY, FFIV, ISRG, NFLX, NTGR, QCOM, SBUX, and WDC.
Thursday: APD, T, BBT, BMY, CSH, CAT, DO, LLY, EXC, FITB, FLIR, KEY, NOK, NUE, RS, TZOO, TEL, UNP, ZMH, AMZN, AXP, BUCY, CPHD, COF, CMG, ETFC, MSFT, MOS, and SNDK.
Friday: IR, JCI, KMB, ERIC, MHP, SLB, SPAR, VZ, and WIT.
Monday: DAL, HAL, HAS, MMR, EDU, PETS, ATHR, BRO, CCK, ELS, IBM, ICUI, IEX, LNCR, NE, PKG, RLRN, RLI, STLD, TXN, TUP, and ZION.
Tuesday: BIIB, FRX, GS, HOG, ITW, JNJ, PEP, PII, STT, AMTD, UAL, UNH, WHR, BSX, GILD, JNPR, TPX, CMW, AND YHOO.
Wednesday: ABT, MO, BLK, KO, CMA, GENZ, MS, LCC, USB, WFC, BIDU, EBAY, FFIV, ISRG, NFLX, NTGR, QCOM, SBUX, and WDC.
Thursday: APD, T, BBT, BMY, CSH, CAT, DO, LLY, EXC, FITB, FLIR, KEY, NOK, NUE, RS, TZOO, TEL, UNP, ZMH, AMZN, AXP, BUCY, CPHD, COF, CMG, ETFC, MSFT, MOS, and SNDK.
Friday: IR, JCI, KMB, ERIC, MHP, SLB, SPAR, VZ, and WIT.
Trading Ideas 17th July 2010
This last week has been a bit manic, no matter how far analyst expectations have been beat, the companies the share price has gone down. The banks particularly have been beat down and given the new finance regulation that is coming into force their future profits should be impacted due to the reduction in risk taking.
In the back of my mind the US employment situation is a bit of a concern, particular for companies that are largely focused in the US.
Next week there are significant number of earnings release and whether this will move the market considerably is yet to be seen.
For the coming month I have put in orders to go Long on the following for EURUSD
1 contract at 1.3215
2 contracts at 1.3420
3 contracts at 1.3625
4 contracts at 1.3830
My rationale is that the US is accumulating considerable debt and the local states are also having significant cash flow issues.
The Euro has been beaten down due to debt issues in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. However what a lot of people fail to understand is that these countries do not suffer from excess spending, more so incompetent and corrupt tax collection policies. An increase in tax collection methodologies together with reduced government spending should see things level out in the medium term.
The other point here to note is that although the Euro has been bashed lately the USD is in much the same position but not yet caught the attention of anyone.
In the back of my mind the US employment situation is a bit of a concern, particular for companies that are largely focused in the US.
Next week there are significant number of earnings release and whether this will move the market considerably is yet to be seen.
For the coming month I have put in orders to go Long on the following for EURUSD
1 contract at 1.3215
2 contracts at 1.3420
3 contracts at 1.3625
4 contracts at 1.3830
My rationale is that the US is accumulating considerable debt and the local states are also having significant cash flow issues.
The Euro has been beaten down due to debt issues in Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. However what a lot of people fail to understand is that these countries do not suffer from excess spending, more so incompetent and corrupt tax collection policies. An increase in tax collection methodologies together with reduced government spending should see things level out in the medium term.
The other point here to note is that although the Euro has been bashed lately the USD is in much the same position but not yet caught the attention of anyone.
Monday 12 July 2010
Microsoft - Analyst Recommendation
Janney Capital analyst Sasa Zorovic this morning raised his rating on Microsoft (MSFT) to Buy from Neutral while maintaining his $30. - 12th July 2010.
The last few recommendations, I did exactly the opposite to what Sasa has recommended and was very in the money. This latest upgrade for Microsoft would indicate a good selling opportunity base on the analyst recommendation.
Microsoft trade on very low PE - not far off a company that has zero growth prospects.
Its search engine and mobile apps are about as dead as can be. It has had years to sort out Windows mobile and all it did was provide us with recurring crashes, leaving the gates wide open for Apple. Windows Vista was a disaster and Windows 7.....well we will see. I have in fact moved to Linux as a result of Vista and will never go back to Windows again if I can help it. Nor would I ever by a mobile device with Windows on it.
I know many company CIO's don't like windows...but there once was no alternative. Now with apple coming in, cloud services more available and enhanced security issues...particularly with Windows software...it could be the end to the monopoly on the desktop. Even end users are more familiar with the apple desktop than before. It is far more secure and requires a lot less software to control.
On the server side we all know how unreliable a Microsoft run server is. Unfortunately a lot of software will only run on windows....historically there was no alternative. Now however there are a lot more software developers looking to provide their services on more than one platform as companies seek out cheaper and more secure alternatives.
Could Microsoft be for 2010 what IBM was for the 1990's ? A sitting dead duck ?
The last few recommendations, I did exactly the opposite to what Sasa has recommended and was very in the money. This latest upgrade for Microsoft would indicate a good selling opportunity base on the analyst recommendation.
Microsoft trade on very low PE - not far off a company that has zero growth prospects.
Its search engine and mobile apps are about as dead as can be. It has had years to sort out Windows mobile and all it did was provide us with recurring crashes, leaving the gates wide open for Apple. Windows Vista was a disaster and Windows 7.....well we will see. I have in fact moved to Linux as a result of Vista and will never go back to Windows again if I can help it. Nor would I ever by a mobile device with Windows on it.
I know many company CIO's don't like windows...but there once was no alternative. Now with apple coming in, cloud services more available and enhanced security issues...particularly with Windows software...it could be the end to the monopoly on the desktop. Even end users are more familiar with the apple desktop than before. It is far more secure and requires a lot less software to control.
On the server side we all know how unreliable a Microsoft run server is. Unfortunately a lot of software will only run on windows....historically there was no alternative. Now however there are a lot more software developers looking to provide their services on more than one platform as companies seek out cheaper and more secure alternatives.
Could Microsoft be for 2010 what IBM was for the 1990's ? A sitting dead duck ?
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